Are Area Foreclosures Really Up as reported by the Times Free Press?

In Georgia, yes, but not in Tennessee

In the only hard news headline to make it above the fold, The Chattanooga Times Free Press today reports that area foreclosures are up while building rates and sales down. But an analysis of the hard numbers shows that when comparing the first two quarters of 2006 to the first two quarters of 2007, foreclosures are actually down over 10% in Hamilton County, and down almost 1/4 in Marion County. In fact, even with a 68% increase in foreclosures in Sequatchie County, the three Tennessee Counties in the Chattanooga Metropolitan Statistical Area still experienced a decrease of over 10%.

It is the Georgia counties in the metro-area that have experienced triple digit gains, and those gains offset Tennessee's decreases to put the 6-county area in positive numbers. A complete examination of the issue would look at what banks and mortgage lenders made the loans that are being foreclosed, and when those loans were made. Perhaps the problem is more specific than the general analysis reveals.

As for sales, in an article posted on Chattanoogan.com, Realtor Scott Gentry points out that "units sold for the first half of 2007 are 2,738, down 4.5% from record setting 2006’s 2,870 units but up 6.7% from what was then a record 2005."

Deeper analysis reveals that the headline in the Times Free Press may be emphasizing fear to sell newspapers rather than using straight facts to deliver news.

Spreadsheet here.

Link to Times Free Press Article

Link to Scott Gentry Article at Chattanoogan.com